Like the title says, what are my chances? I'm applying for a Ph.D. in Political Science/International Relations. So, who I am:

1. Went to undergrad at Wesleyan University, got around a 3.7-3.8 (my major actually didn't offer a GPA - legacy of the British system). Got high honors for my dissertation, got distinction for my major (I know, it's weird).

2. Went to LSE for my master's degree in International Relations. Again, no GPA, but graduated with merit and won two awards for my dissertation.

3. Have published one article and am in the final round for publication for another. The first was published in a middling academic journal, while the second is one of the top in the field.

4. GRE - 720|98% Verbal; 760|85% Quant; 6|96% Writing

5. Will have worked for 6 years by the time I start my Ph.D., mostly for large non-profits, government. Also an internship at the UN. Also, not that it really matters, but did a whole bunch of extracurricular activities.

I'm applying to all top-tier schools (Columbia, Harvard, UC-Berkeley, MIT, etc.).

I'm a little concerned that my undergraduate GPA (such as it is) isn't really high enough, and of course the general anxiety that comes with applying. And while I'm very proud of my work experience, I've heard it doesn't really matter when it comes time to deciding who gets in. And finally, the GRE score. I'm fairly comfortable with it, but I scored much better while practicing at home. It's probably too late to take it again, and I really don't want to spend the money, but if it's strongly suggested, I'll definitely consider it.

Plus, I *really* want to go to Columbia, as my girlfriend and I have been doing the long distance thing for four years non-stop and it's time for us to be in the same city. (And by long distance, I mean that we started out our relationship with my in London for a year and her in New Zealand for seven months. And no, this didn't start nor was it primarily maintained through the internet. ) So, the stakes are high on this one, which is why I'm so concerned/anxious. It's not going to make or break our relationship, but I loathe the idea of another 1.5-2 more years of doing this before she can move. Plus, I'd rather not have her do that, since it'll obviously affect her job.

And with that, what are my chances?

PhD programs are SO competetive that it seems really arbitrary to me sometimes which excellent students get in and which don't.

That said, I don't know how your application could be much stronger on the facets you listed. Presumably you have good letters available to you and a mature understanding of your purpose for that statement. With a top shelf GRE, relevant work experience and honors from recognized schools, the balance is really intangible.

I keep reading that you can increase your chances in PhD programs by contacting professors with whom you might work asking specific, incisive questions. Have you given any thought to such a strategy?